In the first half of the year, the domestic synthetic fiber market showed a trend of "three drops and two rises". The "three drops" are mainly due to the sluggish performance of terminal textile demand, and the pattern of oversupply has dragged down the three major products of polyester, nylon and polypropylene, and the price center has dropped greatly and slightly. Among them, the largest decline was in the industry's leading polyester filament and polyester staple fiber, and the price of conventional varieties generally declined by 6.25%~1.11%. The "two increases" are mainly driven by the continuous rise in the price of raw material acrylonitrile, and domestic factories and traders have adjusted their prices one after another. The price of acrylic fiber market rose significantly in the first quarter and supported a small increase in the price in the half year. Spandex products gained a rise of 3.51%~10.99% by relying on their own tight supply advantage, and the trend of industry profitability was established.

In the second half of the year, the domestic synthetic fiber industry will continue to play the game between production capacity and demand. The production capacity of polyester, nylon and other major synthetic fiber varieties will continue to expand, but there is greater uncertainty in the demand side. Therefore, we should maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the market.

The first half of the year was mixed

The output of synthetic fiber has increased steadily. According to statistics, the cumulative output of synthetic fiber in China from January to June was about 17.949 million tons, up 4.9% from 17.113 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of varieties, the cumulative output of acrylic fiber in the first half of this year was 346000 tons, a slight increase of 1.5% over the same period last year; The cumulative output of polyester fiber was 15.715 million tons, an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year; The output of nylon, spandex and vinylon was 992000 tons, 182000 tons and 36000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10%; Only polypropylene fiber production showed a downward trend, with a cumulative output of 146000 tons, down 7.7% from the same period last year. Due to the high price of PP raw material in the upstream and the insufficient demand in the downstream, the enthusiasm of polypropylene fiber manufacturers is not high, and the number of enterprises that limit or stop production increases, resulting in the decline of polypropylene fiber production.

The import volume decreased and the export volume increased. With the continuous expansion of domestic production capacity, the import volume of China's main synthetic fiber varieties has gradually decreased, while the export volume has gradually increased. According to customs data, from January to May, the import volume of polyester filament, spandex, acrylic top and acrylic tow were respectively 49400 tons, 7600 tons, 16000 tons and 35000 tons, down 7.66%, 1.30%, 20.00% and 21.52% from the same period last year. In terms of export, except for nylon filament, acrylic tow and polypropylene fiber, the export volume of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, spandex and other varieties increased compared with the same period last year, with a large gap in growth. Among them, the cumulative exports of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber were 113900 tons and 273500 tons, an increase of 1.97% and 6.92% compared to the same period last year; Spandex exports 21700 tons, up 26.90% from the same period last year; The cumulative export of acrylic staple fiber and acrylic top was 2900 tons and 0200 tons, up 107.14% and 233.33% from the same period last year.

The operating rate of main synthetic fiber varieties varied. According to rough statistics, from January to June 2013, the average start-up rate of polyester filament, polyester staple, spandex, acrylic and nylon industries was around 76.50%, 61.00%, 82.00%, 80.00% and 73.00% respectively. Among them, the operating rate of polyester staple fiber industry hit 50% for a long time, which was the worst performance of all varieties. The reason is that, on the one hand, the demand is poor and the product price is falling. The lower the price is, the less the downstream will buy goods, resulting in the inventory is always full; On the other hand, it is because losses always follow. The average profit of the industry from January to June this year was -117.08 yuan/ton, a sharp decline of 185% compared with the same period last year. Therefore, polyester staple fiber manufacturers have to reduce production to reduce inventory and reduce losses.

Through the analysis of the output, import and export and market trend in the first half of the year, we can see that the domestic synthetic fiber industry has developed relatively steadily this year, with a certain gap between various varieties. However, from chemical fiber enterprises to downstream texturing and weaving enterprises, the overall profit margin is still at a low level, and some varieties are still in a negative growth and loss state in some time periods.

Cautious and optimistic in the second half of the year

The author expects that the synthetic fiber market should maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude in the second half of the year. The reasons are as follows.

First of all, from the macro perspective, after the implementation of three rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, the economy has finally ushered in a sustained improvement, while Europe is still in the quagmire of recession, but the impact of the European debt crisis is weakening. Compared with the improvement in Europe and the United States, China's economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth. After a brief rebound in the fourth quarter of last year, China's economy fell again in the first half of this year. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other institutions have lowered their economic growth expectations for China in 2013. For the monetary policy in the second half of the year, most experts prefer that the monetary policy will not be relaxed easily and the liquidity level will not be too loose. Moreover, even if the monetary policy is relaxed, it will not play a big role in promoting the growth of the real economy. Therefore, China's manufacturing industry still faces many challenges, such as worsening external demand and weak domestic demand.

Secondly, from the perspective of cost, in the second half of the year, the domestic PTA industry entered the expansion and concentration period. The PTA capacity of Yisheng Petrochemical 2 million tons/year, Xianglu Petrochemical 2 million tons/year and Hengli Petrochemical 2 million tons/year is released in a centralized manner, and the supply pressure will gradually increase again. It is inevitable that the PTA industry will be reshuffled, and the impact on non-integrated producers is particularly strong. It is expected that PTA factories will continue to limit production and maintain prices in the second half of the year.

In addition, in the first half of the year, a new set of MTO device was added to domestic MEG, and the smooth operation of Ningbo Heyuan 500000 t/a device also marked another major breakthrough in MEG technology in China. In the second half of the year, the 380000 t/a units of Sinopec Wuhan, 200000 t/a units of CNPC Pengzhou and 200000 t/a units of Yongjin Yongcheng will be put on the market. In particular, the intervention of the first two traditional petroleum units may have a relatively obvious impact on the market.

As for acrylonitrile, only Anqing Petrochemical has 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile expansion project in the year, which has been put into operation successfully at the end of January. From August to September, there are fewer imported ships and the manufacturers may reduce production slightly, and the situation of loose supply and demand will be improved. In the fourth quarter, with the seasonal growth of downstream demand, the price center of acrylonitrile may move up steadily.

Caprolactam industry is in the process of crazy expansion. After the year, the 200000 t/a caprolactam unit of Dafeng Haili was put into operation smoothly, and the new units of Luxi Chemical, Hubei Sanning and Nanjing Dongfang will also be put into operation successively. The three factories will bring at least 400000 tons/year of new capacity to the caprolactam industry. If all these projects are implemented, the domestic caprolactam production capacity is expected to exceed 1.8 million tons/year by the end of 2013.

From the perspective of supply and demand, in the second half of the year, there were no plans to expand production or build new units for acrylic fiber, spandex and other related products. Therefore, it is expected that the production capacity will continue to maintain stability, but there are still certain expectations of expansion in the polyester and nylon fields, and support the steady growth of domestic production. Among them, polyester filament has the most projects to be put into production, and nearly 10 units are planned to be put into production. According to the preliminary statistics, more than 2 million tons/year of production capacity are expected to be put into production within the year, including 250000 tons/year of Shuangtu New Materials, 200000 tons/year of Huaxing Tire, 400000 tons/year of Huaxiang High Fiber, 200000 tons/year of Longqiwan Chemical Fiber, 200000 tons/year of Hengke New Materials, 200000 tons/year of Jinxing Group, 500000 tons/year of Ancient Fiber Road and 400000 tons/year of Hongjian Group.

The production capacity is increasing, but due to the weak performance of domestic and foreign markets, the demand for terminal textile orders is generally general, and the pressure on grey fabric inventory cannot be relieved. For example, at present, the delivery of conventional varieties such as polyester taff and Chunya Textile is sluggish, and the overall inventory is above the level of a month, and some of them are higher than a month and a half. It is expected that with the arrival of the "golden nine silver ten" traditional consumption peak season, the actual demand situation will improve and support a strong rise in the price of synthetic fiber. Since autumn and winter clothes mainly use heavy and thick fabrics, the demand for synthetic fibers will increase accordingly, especially the transaction of coarse denier varieties will become increasingly active. However, if the "peak season is not prosperous" becomes a fact again, under the condition of unbalanced supply and demand, the pressure of chemical fiber factory shipment is still large, and the market competition will remain fierce.